Why bother about centenarians?

Late Life Creativity

The Centre for Ageing, Neuroscience and the Humanities invites you to

Prof Karen-Andersen Ranberg, MD PhD

Department of Geriatric Medicine, University of Southern Denmark

Director, Health Strand, SHARE (the largest study on ageing in Europe)

Lecture Theatre, Trinity Centre,

Adelaide and Meath Hospital Dublin, Tallaght

1.00 pm, Thursday 13th Oct 2011

Luas Stop Cookstown

In the last 50 years there has been a dramatic increase (20-fold) in the number of centenarians in the industrialized world and mainly due to the declining death rates among people aged 80+ year olds. Although the absolute number of centenarians is small, they may provide us special insights to what is happening in terms of the health of oldest olds, i.e. 80+ year olds. The Danish Ageing Research Centre at the University of Southern Denmark has ‘specialized’ in epidemiological research in the oldest olds and centenarians. Due to a national population register we benefit from a 100% identification of every single person.

To predict the future has always been difficult. However, if the decline in mortality in octogenarians continues at the same rate it can be forecasted that one out of two girls born today will become a centenarian. With the increasing awareness of the many benefits in older people of prevention, rehabilitation and medical treatment we may see many more very old geriatric patients in the future, when we have the total effect of both large post WW2 babies turning into octo- and nonagenarians as well as the remarkable declines in mortality of exactly the same age groups.

More epidemiological research is needed to know whether the present trends in decreasing mortality are accompanied by similar changes in disability and morbidity, or whether life-style associated diseases more common in the post-WW2 generations will increase disability and morbidity. Indeed, modern medicine has brought years to life (living longer!), but as geriatricians we have to bring life to years!

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